NEET UG 2026 Difficulty Prediction: As NEET UG 2026 approaches, the biggest question among aspirants is simple: “Will Biology remain the rank-deciding subject?” Based on a decade of exam trends and expert analysis the probability of Biology being rank decider is high. Biology has consistently been the most predictable, highest-scoring, and NCERT-dependent section of NEET, while Physics and Chemistry have shown fluctuating difficulty levels.
This article examines 10-year trends, explains why 85-90% of Biology questions come directly or indirectly from NCERT, and predicts the expected difficulty level of all three subjects in NEET UG 2026.
Trend Analysis of the Last 10 Years (2015-2024)
Biology: The Consistent Rank Maker
Across the past decade:
- Biology has remained easy to moderate in 9 out of 10 years.
- NEET 2024, 2023, 2022, 2019 & 2017 were highly NCERT-direct, making Biology the most scoring section.
- Average scoring rate among well-prepared aspirants: 300
- Number of students scoring 340+ in Biology has increased every year.
Chemistry: Initially Easy, Now More Analytical
Trend pattern:
- 2015-2019: Mostly theory-based, NCERT-dependent.
- 2020-2024: More conceptual application and tricky physical chemistry numericals.
- The shift towards conceptual and hybrid questions is expected to continue.
Physics: Most Unpredictable Section
Historical trend:
Join NEET News 2025 - Most difficult in 2016, 2019, 2023
- Moderate in 2020, 2021, 2022
- Often includes 15-20 calculation-based questions
- Time-consuming nature makes it the rank-dropping subject for many aspirants.
Overall 10-year Pattern
- Biology has always been stable.
- Physics decides top ranks.
- Chemistry flutters between easy and moderate.
This decade-long stability makes Biology extremely predictable for 2026.
Read Also: NCERT for NEET UG 2026: Why it is Important for the Exam?
Why 85-90% of Biology Questions Come from NCERT
Biology is the only section where NTA strictly follows NCERT lines.
Across past papers:
- Most questions are either direct lines,
- rephrased statements,
- or figure/table-based picks straight from NCERT.
Reasons:
1. NCERT is the Official Core Textbook for NEET
NMC and NTA have clearly stated that NEET syllabus is based on NCERT Class 11 & 12 Biology.
2. Factual Density of Biology
Chapters like Plant Physiology, Ecology, Genetics, and Human Reproduction are fact-loaded, so the paper setters rely on NCERT to maintain standardization.
3. High Consistency
NCERT diagrams, summary boxes, ‘Do You Know?’ sections, side notes, and flowcharts are repeatedly converted into multiple-choice questions.
4. Preventing Ambiguity
Biology questions from outside NCERT create disputes.
NTA avoids this by picking NCERT-based statements so that answer keys remain clear.
5. Easy-to-Massify Questions
With 300,000+ students scoring high in Biology every year, NTA uses Biology to:
- Maintain uniform difficulty
- Ensure no state board gets an advantage
Thus, in 2026 as well, at least 85-90% of Biology questions will be straight or indirect NCERT picks.
Read Also: NEET UG 2026: 90 NCERT Biology Points for 90 Questions (One-Page Cheat Sheet)
Expected Difficulty Shift in Physics & Chemistry for NEET UG 2026
Based on exam paper evolution and expert predictions, here is the 2026 section-wise difficulty forecast:
Biology 2026 Difficulty Prediction
Difficulty Level: Easy to Moderate
Expected Nature:
- 75-80 direct NCERT questions
- 5-10 indirect application or statement-based questions
- More diagram-based questions (15-20 expected)
- High predictability, low surprises
Conclusion: Biology will remain the deciding subject for scoring 330+, boosting overall score, and reaching government college-level cutoffs.
Chemistry 2026 Difficulty Prediction
Difficulty Level: Moderate
Expected Nature:
- Inorganic: Highly NCERT-based
- Organic: More conceptual + mechanism-based
- Physical: 8–12 calculation-based numericals
- Assertion–Reason questions may increase
Trend Shift Expected:
- Organic Chemistry may become slightly trickier
- Physical Chemistry may have more application-driven numericals
- Focus on hybrid conceptual questions
Conclusion: Chemistry will be moderate and primarily conceptual, with mixed NCERT + application questions.
Physics 2026 Difficulty Prediction
Difficulty Level: Moderate to Difficult
Expected Nature:
- 12-18 numerical questions
- Heavy weightage on Mechanics & Current Electricity
- More multi-step calculations
- Slightly tricky conceptual questions
Trend Shift Expected:
- Paper setters may avoid ultra-tough levels like NEET 2016
- But time-consuming numericals will remain
Conclusion: Physics is expected to be the most challenging subject, influencing top AIR ranks.
Final Prediction for NEET UG 2026
| Subject | Expected Difficulty | Score Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Biology | Easy-Moderate | Most scoring, rank deciding for 550-650 range |
| Chemistry | Moderate | Neutral; not rank-deciding |
| Physics | Moderate-Difficult | AIR 1-5000 decider |
